Mauritania’s Gas Future in Numbers — Insights from GECF’s May 2025 Report

Mauritania’s Gas Future in Numbers — Insights from GECF’s May 2025 Report

The latest GECF report highlights critical global gas trends, with implications that are highly relevant to Mauritania’s emerging energy profile:

1. LNG Demand Is Rising — A Window of Opportunity for Mauritania
 • Global LNG imports reached 35.5 million tonnes in April 2025 — a 3.5% increase year-on-year.
 • Europe remains the top destination, absorbing most spot and flexible LNG cargoes due to low storage and reduced pipeline supplies.
 • With GTA Phase 1 on track, Mauritania is well positioned to tap into this growing, flexible demand environment.

2. US-China Tariffs Reroute LNG Flows
 • China imposed 15% tariffs on US LNG (Feb 2025), causing a complete halt of US LNG shipments to China.
 • US LNG cargoes are now redirected to Europe and Asia, creating market gaps that new suppliers like Mauritania can fill.
 • This is an opening for Mauritania to negotiate long-term LNG contracts with Asia-Pacific partners diversifying from US suppliers.

3. African Energy Interconnectivity Is a Priority
 • At the G20 Energy Transitions Working Group in Cape Town (April–May 2025), the GECF reaffirmed support for:
 • Energy access and security in Africa
 • Strengthening regional gas infrastructure
 • Mauritania, as an Observer Country, stands to benefit from policy alignment and potential partnerships within Africa.

4. Global Gas Production and Prices Declining — Good News for Project Costs
 • Global gas production forecast for 2025: +1.9% growth, revised down due to weaker Eurasian output.
 • Spot prices:
 • Europe (TTF): $11.6/MMBtu (down 12% m-o-m)
 • US (Henry Hub): $3.4/MMBtu (down 18% m-o-m)
 • Lower prices reduce project input costs, making Mauritania’s upstream and LNG development more competitive.

5. US LNG Projects Under Pressure
 • Tariffs on steel/aluminum could increase US LNG project costs by up to 7.5%, threatening 50 Mtpa of capacity.
 • This presents a strategic advantage for lower-cost, high-potential exporters like Mauritania entering the market now.

Mauritania is not just observing — it’s positioned to emerge as a serious West African player in global gas trade.

Source: MONTHLY GAS MARKET REPORT 
May 2025 by Gas Exporting
Countries Forum(GECF)